India's Foreign Policy: Stuck in Game Theory's Prisoner's Dilemma---With Whom Should We Align?

Clarity in speech and actions follows clarity in thought. Clarity in thought is a by-product of an ordered mind which is possible only if you remove the past biases, cobwebs, and confusion which plague the mind. This is conceivable only if you sort out your thinking by deliberate, conscious effort which requires a lot of exertion and determination.

Just because a person has an ivy-league college education and has decades of experience in a particular profession, doesn’t guarantee complete objectivity in the thinking process. This is more so when applied to national affairs. Leaders at the helm are accountable to 1.4 billion Indians and their actions should not, in any way, jeopardise the interests or the future of the country. One small miscalculation could have severe repercussions on the country. I have said before, and I repeat it again today, that the PM-elect must minutely monitor the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of External affairs, while broadly overseeing the other ministries after appointing capable and learned ministers, free from personal grudges, who are fully equipped to discharge their duties with responsibility.

The current Indian foreign policy is akin to the mayhem seen on Indian roads and highways. On Indian roads and highways, one sees complete chaos, indiscipline, and drivers throw caution to the winds, forget about following laid down rules and guidelines. Our foreign policy is like travelling on a 12-lane highway while switching lanes on one’s whims and fancies, doing a U-turn and a left turn and then a right turn, in the process throwing all caution to the winds. It’s like driving on a road in Lutyens Delhi where once you approach a roundabout, you are not sure which turn to take, and you circle the roundabout many times before taking the left road, and realizing that you have taken the wrong road, you put your car in reverse gear, go back, and then take the roundabout again, and circle again a few times, before going straight. What does this mean for the other drivers on the road? They will be annoyed, angry, and exasperated, will think you are a newbie on Delhi roads, will accost you, and in some cases, you could also become the victim of road rage, as has been seen many times on Delhi roads. If you are tech-savvy, you would use the GPS-enabled Google map, but you don’t.

Let us be clear about the main issue. The world is divided into two blocks, so in a sense its bipolar, and certainly not multi-polar. On one side are the free, democratic nations led by the US, UK, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, and Australia, and on the other side are the communist, closed societies led by Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, a few central Asian countries, and some scattered communist countries around the globe. While its important that India maintain harmonious relations with the three major countries along its borders, like China, Pakistan, we would certainly not like to add another third belligerent nation like Russia along our borders, by being anti-Russia. We can maintain harmonious relation with Pakistan, China and Russia through cultural exchanges, educational tie-ups, trade, and so on but we must be clear and unwavering in our support to the democratic alliance. In this regard, one rare quality is, being loyal to a fault. Agreed, the West has some faults and often acts unilaterally, but be assured, if we back them to the hilt, they will return the compliment.

India’s foreign policy was on track in the first 3-4 years after 2014. But since then, under the present incumbent minister, we have seen a deviation which does not safeguard our interests. The Honourable Minister is also very vocal in denouncing the West, and for some queer reason has a soft spot for Russia. Remember, if you support Russia, then the US will align with Pakistan and will not support us in our face-off with the Chinese. The rule is: you scratch my back, and I will also scratch your back. Our Honourable PM is also adding years to himself and is perhaps, thus, not in a position to travel so frequently for foreign visits, but he must keep an eagle’s eye on the foreign ministry. Letting loose this crucial ministry is not in the interests of the country. Further, in matters pertaining to defence and foreign affairs, it would be advisable to take the Opposition into confidence, take their inputs, and have a session in the Parliament before taking crucial decision. This is because irrespective of the government in power, there must be consistency and continuity in our foreign and defence policies. India must be perceived as a reliable and trustworthy partner.

Indians must always remember the fact that our country was conceived as a democracy first by our founding fathers, and later socialism was brought in the Constitution in the 60s. What does this imply? That we act in the best democratic traditions, strengthen and give democratic institutions the autonomy and wherewithal to act in the best interests of the country, and that we align and support democratic nations. As a corollary, our military’s aim must be to protect dharma, preserve and protect democracies around the world and first of all within India, and to safeguard our territorial and strategic interests. We must scout for robust democracies in the five continents around the world, forge meaningful and long-lasting relationships, and enter into partnerships and alliances with such countries. By being a part of the communist alliances like BRICS and SCO, we are sending a wrong signal to the world. We must strengthen IBSA, be an observer or an invitee in SCO without being a part of it, must strengthen QUAD, I2U2, and the like. Our current PM is not a power-hungry person, and in all likelihood is scouting for a successor who will be chosen from an electoral college within the party for 2024, that is, the BJP. His intent and motives are genuine. This is an age of alliances, not dalliances.