Should India Automate its Nuclear Counter-Strike Capability?

There are many reasons to be wary of increasing the automation of nuclear command and control, especially when it comes to computer-assisted decision-making. Many of these technologies are still in their infancy and prone to malfunctions that cannot easily be anticipated. According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), recent advances in AI contribute to nuclear risk.

The authors warn that nuclear-armed states’ competition in military AI and premature adoption of AI in nuclear weapons and related capabilities could have a negative impact on strategic stability and increase the likelihood of nuclear weapon use. 

Premature adoption of AI could increase the risk that nuclear weapons and related capabilities could fail or be misused in ways that could trigger an accidental or inadvertent escalation of a crisis or conflict into a nuclear conflict. It is important for nuclear-armed states to carefully consider the benefits and risks associated with AI in nuclear weapons before rushing to adopt this technology.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to impact the field of nuclear weapons and doctrines. AI systems could be used in nuclear weapon systems, including not only nuclear warheads and delivery systems but also all nuclear force-related systems for nuclear command and control, early warning, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). The connection between AI and nuclear weapons is not new. In fact, AI has been part of the nuclear deterrence architecture for decades. 

As early as the 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union saw that the nascent field of AI could play a role in the development and maintenance of their retaliatory capability. Early applications of AI included automating threat detection, logistical planning for the transmission of launch orders, and missile targeting and guidance. However, there are many reasons to be wary of increasing the automation of nuclear command and control, especially when it comes to computer-assisted decision-making. Many of these technologies are still in their infancy and prone to malfunctions that cannot easily be anticipated.

India’s nuclear doctrine is centered around the “No First Use” policy and “Credible Minimum Deterrence” (CMD). This means India will only use nuclear weapons in retaliation against a nuclear attack on its territory or armed forces. India has developed a nuclear triad, which includes the ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea.

There are however some experts who argue that automating India’s nuclear strike corps could potentially increase the speed and accuracy of its response in the event of a nuclear attack. Automation could also reduce the risk of human error and improve India's nuclear arsenal's overall safety and security. However, it is important to note that any decision to automate its nuclear strike corps must be carefully considered and balanced against the potential risks and challenges.

India currently operates eight nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft, four land-based ballistic missiles, and two sea-based missiles. India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with at least four new weapons systems now under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems. Several of these systems are nearing completion and will soon be combat-ready.