Four Scenarios for Dealing with China and the One which is Most Effective!

China has been a thorn in India’s neck since the last 65 years. Not without reason. The leadership in India cannot distinguish a foe from a friend, and so-called friends who are actually wolves in lamb’s clothing.

Indians could be aptly termed as naïve, falling for praise and adulation from the enemy, without first understanding and uncovering his ulterior motives and intentions. Within their own country, Indians deal with their opponents mercilessly and brutally and hit them below the belt, but when it comes to dealing with an overbearing external enemy, Indians talk of ‘the world is one family’ and ‘we play fairly’ and similar nonsensical rhetoric. We want other nations to look at us from the prism of goodness, forgetting that we are far from good ourselves. Here are four scenarios for effectively dealing with China and the consequent end-results. 

Scenario 1: India Follows an Independent, Non-Aligned Policy:

Here we consider the period upto 2014. Look at the data. Heightened insurgencies in the North-East by China-backed forces and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan on Indian soil. The savagery unleashed on Kashmiri Pundits in 1989-1990 in J&K and their mass migration. Belligerency by both China and Pakistan in terms of encroachments on Indian soil. This is a policy of rudderlessness where India is isolated and becomes fair game for hostile neighbours. The return to this policy is being seen currently. Powers that were backing India’s candidature for the UNSC seat are now backing out. Data doesn’t lie. India is most vulnerable under this policy.

Scenario 2: India Aligns with Old Friend Russia:

This is 2022, not 1971. Let us look at the data. Pakistan-backed cross-border terrorism from 1982-2014 doesn’t get a Russian disapproval. Russia also remains silent on China’s transgressions on India. Russia is not particularly interested in India’s security vis-à-vis its hostile neighbours. Further, Russia doesn’t denounce either Pakistan or China for their hostile actions against India. China is openly threatening Russia with its muscular foreign policy. In all probability, Russia will side with China if push comes to shove. Russia and China share the same ideological base. Russia will not come to India’s rescue if we are in trouble. Data doesn’t lie. Old friend Russia doesn’t serve our interests anymore.

Scenario 3: India Plays Second Fiddle to China:

Let us look at examples from around the world. China pumps big money, but both Pakistan and Sri Lanka are deeply entrenched in a debt trap laid by China. Both countries lose their sovereignty to some extent. If India opens its market to China, then China will flood India with its cheap but moderate quality goods thus killing Indian small and medium industry. China then foments further trouble in the North-East and backs Pakistan surreptitiously. Russia remains a mute spectator to all the sordid ongoings in the subcontinent. China continues to increase border tensions and encroachments on Indian soil. Data doesn’t lie. This policy is a fatal embrace.

Scenario 4: India Aligns with US, Western Europe, Japan, and Australia:

India shares the same ideological and shared values and traditions with these nations. Remember, in 1950s, when India faced a food crisis during Nehru’s tenure, it was the US which shipped India millions of tons of food grains. The US and European powers also speak up for India against China’s transgressions on Indian soil and Pakistan-based cross-border terrorism. Under this policy, India gets reliable backing and support both morally and physically on economic development and security issues. Here, Russia would embrace Pakistan. Let it be so. India’s 25 million diaspora also lives in these countries. Data doesn’t lie. This policy would best safeguard India’s interests.