Battle-Hardened Indians Must Use Brinkmanship and Deft Diplomacy To Keep Chinese at Bay

Now that nearly 50,000-100,000 soldiers with small and heavy arms and ammunition are stationed on either side of the LAC/MacMohan line by both China and India, the moot question is what must be India’s next strategy? Let us revisit history to get our answer. Historically, it has been proved time and again that China doesn’t play by the rules, it is an unpredictable, cunning state and doesn’t keep its word. The new order demands that India now permanently station 50,000-100,000 troops along the LAC/MacMohan line in total combat readiness at all times in the future. India must seize the first mover's advantage. What India must do is initiate limited, punitive strikes across 15-20 points and enter 15-20 km inside and recapture territories illegally occupied by the Chinese without going out for a full-fledged war. An all-out war would be expensive to the Chinese and my reading is that they won’t take this option. Once India reclaims its territories it should then negotiate for peace and partial withdrawal and make the new positions the new status quo along the LAC/MacMohan line.

The Chinese in their stupidity have opened far too many fronts. In the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, the Americans, Japanese and the Australians can take them on and hold forte. India must be consistent and unwavering in its alignment with the US, Quad, Europe and friendly countries. If India is inconsistent in its utterings and behaviour, then the US too will reflect the same.  If India is consistent and steadfast, you can bet the US will align and back India to the end. In the event of a full scale war, there could be as many as 40,000-50,000 troop casualties on both the sides of China and India. While India could shoulder this, China would be unwilling to bare this loss. Russia would indirectly support China and the US would indirectly support India without in any way getting directly involved with their armies. China is showing numbers, but its troops are demoralised and its weapon systems have not been tested in a real war. All this points that China would not go out for an all out open war. India must turn this into its opportunity.

What India must do is regulate and direct its media appropriately during war times. There must be a centralised press briefing by the ministry of defence and external affairs daily. There should not be multiple channels of information from the Indian side. While the Indian government must always let out the truth couched in a bodyguard of lies, it must regulate the debates and news that is ongoing in the Indian media. India must launch an aggressive propaganda/disinformation warfare on the Chinese in Mandarin language. This must be through leaflets dropped from high altitude planes, radio, TV and the internet. India must further tighten the noose around Chinese companies in India. We must inflict as much soft damage to them as possible. This will break the Chinese back, and when we sit on the negotiating table from a position of strength, we will be able to bargain effectively. We must do this to ensure peace for the next 40-50 years along our western and eastern borders. And this can be done only when we act decisively and firmly.

As the 12th Corp Commanders' meeting takes place tomorrow between the Indian and Chinese sides, we must ensure that we don't blink first and also that we must master the delicate although dangerous art of brinkmanship as the US did with the erstwhile Soviet Union during the Cuban missile crisis. No risk, no pain and as a corollary no gain. The Chinese have for too long intimidated India by its salami slicing strategy of our territory.  In war as in politics, brinkmanship should be done deftly fully knowing your strengths and weaknesses as also the enemies strengths and weaknesses. Any miscalculation could lead to a flare up and things could easily spin out of control. We must be prepared for any eventuality. On the other hand, we must unnerve the Chinese through non-state spokespersons that Tibet and Xinjiang are autonomous regions and we don't accept Chinese suzerainty over them. We must put them on the back-foot and make them defensive.  We must make pro noises and behaviour about Quad and also that we will pull out of BRICS and SCO, since in any way it doesn't serve our purpose. 

+INDIA ACCELERATING+ had forewarned India's top political leadership as way back in 2002/2010/2014 that China would indulge in military adventurism against India in 2018-2025. +INDIA ACCELERATING+ had also suggested and advised that India should immediately raise 4-5 mountain divisions to guard our eastern and northern borders. +INDIA ACCELERATING+ had also advised that the country should expedite the weapons acquisition programme and get lethal, quality and effective arms and ammunition from the developed and advanced economies and also build a domestic military industrial complex. It is commendable that the earlier and present governments have heeded this suggestion and have done the utmost to arm the country to the teeth. India's strength lies in the fact that Indians are by nature an innate warrior class and we are quick to rise and fight for our rights. While arms and weapon systems are crucial in fighting and winning a war, the more important aspect is the human spirit. India's spirit is to give the encroaching enemy a good taste of their aggression because the Indian soldier is battle hardened, tough and has shed blood during peacetimes too.