The recent tweet by a Chinese State TV channel that Chinese
ground troops could enter New Delhi in 48 hours or Chinese paratroops could
land in India in 10 hours flat should not be taken lightly. The Chinese are
testing the waters through their front organisation to the effect that they
want to assess what the Indian reaction is. To this, the Indian stand should be
unequivocal and unflinchingly non evasive. India takes every threat seriously, even
if it’s made by a front organisation of a known Indian baiter like China.
China’s world view is quite different than that of India. With
a GDP five times India’s size and a military power nearly thrice that of India,
China sees itself in the league of Russia, EU and US. It wants to and will
resist US domination more for ideological and historical reasons than for
economic reasons. In a world which is retracting from globalisation and pushing
towards protectionism, China in its quest for world domination is putting its
bets on more globalisation and muti-lateralism. No wonder, China’s
investment-led economic model is clearly under strain.
A McKinsey Global Institute study says a more
productivity-led and domestic consumer-driven economy could add $5 trillion to
the Chinese GDP and household income in the next 10-15 years time. In Q4FY16,
China’s GDP grew by 6.8 per cent, bringing last year’s average GDP growth to 6.7 per cent. As a
result, soon after the data was released, the iShares China Large-Cap
exchange-traded fund (FXI) slipped 0.4 per cent. Rob Lutts, CIO of Cabot Wealth
Management in Salem, Mass., after returning from a 10-day trip to Beijing told Barrons.com:
“It is not reasonable for China to grow at 6 per cent or 7 per cent, but the government has
doubled the amount of debt to GDP over the past five years, and got a lot of
juice out of that. I think 5 per cent GDP is where China is headed by 2020. China is
slowing.”
China and India will continue to be engines of global growth
with the UN saying India GDP will grow at 7.3 per cent in 2017. But what are the
ramifications for a slowing China on India? Clearly China is getting fidgety
and nervous. Being already included as a high middle income country with a 11.3
crore middle class earning $22,000 or more, China aspires to be in the league of
advanced nations. This quest is making it claim Taiwan, the South China sea
(rich in oil/gas reserves), its inroads into Indian ocean through port-building
activities in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It has augmented its
naval fleet in the Indian Ocean to protect the flow of commodities like oil,
minerals, agricultural produce on which it is so much more dependent.
Major powers across the world do not resent rather they
welcome China’s rise as a economic world power but should it turn into
aggression and coercion, then the world will stand up and take note. In its
quest for world domination, China has played some dirty trade games. The US has
branded China as a currency manipulator and the weak Chinese renminbi has
created a huge trade deficit with the US and major trading partners. China has
warned trading countries that protectionist measures could aggravate the trade
wars further.
Where does India stand in this game of thrones? India under
our dynamic and able PM Modiji has taken some very bold and assertive steps
sending a clear message to China that while India will extend respect to China,
it will not be cowed down by it. Some of these steps include: strengthening the
border road network; proposal to set up a regiment of Brahmos cruise missile in
Arunachal Pradesh, raising of 3-4 additional mountain attack infantry brigades,
going in for purchase of advanced weapons especially for the navy and placing
order for long-range artillery guns, assault helicopters and next gen advanced fighter
jets.
So how much does the claim by the state run Chinese TV
channel hold sway? A Chinese military aggression on India could come at heavy
cost to the country! Here’s why: While China has built strong rail, road
networks in the regions around the Himalayan states, a land invasion could not
be to China’s advantage. At most China could move 50 per cent of its troops to India’s
border and leave 50 per cent to guard against the borders with Russia, Mongolia, Japan,
Taiwan, Phillippines, Vietnam, etc.
Further, China’s weapons are untested, copied and archaic and its troops
don’t have much real life combat experience compared to a battle-hardened
Indian military and its state-of-the-art weapon systems.
Even in the event of an aerial war, the Indian Air Force
could give China a good fight because it has tested arsenal unlike China’s
untested and obsolete war planes. But where India could pip China would be in
the sea lanes from the Bay of Bengal to the Malacca straits. China is super
dependent on the Indian ocean sea routes to transfer its supplies of crude oil,
commodities for its ever-expanding economy. A superior Indian naval fleet could
easily blockade Chinese ship movement and cause irreparable damage to its
economy.
In this context, a cautionary warning to India by a top
American military commander recently on China’s growing Indian Ocean presence
is well timed. In this light nothing could be more urgent then signing two key
agreements between India and the US for joint tracking. Admiral Harry B Harris,
who heads the US Pacific Command (PACOM), termed Chinese submarine forays into
the Indian Ocean an "issue" and said signing of the Communications
Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) will help in joint tracking.
"Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) is
a clear indicator of progress. There are other foundational agreements like
COMCASA and Basic Exchange and the Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial
Information and Services Cooperation (BECA). These are important foundational
agreements. If we get these agreements signed, I think we will be at great
place,” the Admiral said. India should not delay the signing of both these
treaties. Otherwise, a belligerent and aggressive China breathing down India’s
neck will become a source of pain and discomfort for a long time to come.
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