India Can Target China's Soft Underbelly and Should Play the China Card Smartly and Shrewdly

Over the last 6-12 months or so, there have been at least half a dozen face-offs between Chinese military and Indian soldiers along the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and LOC in Jammu & Kashmir. The moot question is: what provokes Chinese adventurism on Indian soil. To answer this question you must first understand the Chinese psyche. China wants India to play second fiddle to it and come into an alliance with it to challenge American world dominance. China has exhibited the will and the resolve to do this by boosting its economy and military substantially over the last 30 years or so.

But for a variety of reasons, India should not and will not play second fiddle to China. India is an open society given to strong democratic traditions while China is largely a closed society in a veiled communist system. India believes in religious freedom and safeguards the family institution while China crushes or regulates religious freedom and practices and also at the same time regulates family structure. India believes in free enterprise and the power of the individual to bring about tectonic shifts in society whereas China believes in collectivism and state enterprise.

China’s adventurism along the LAC and LOC are marked by various reasons. It is militarily superior to India and has surreptitiously promoted communist movements and Maoist insurgency in many parts of India. China has extensively armed and provided nuclear weapons to Pakistan to pin down India by putting extreme psychological pressure on it. It occupies Aksai Chin in Jammu and Kashmir and plays a strategic role in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by placing 11,000 odd troops there who are engaged in highway construction, hydroelectric construction and other military activities.

That China wants to subjugate India forcefully is very much evident in the way it conducts itself in South Asia with India’s neighbours. It has built naval bases in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. It has military to military exchanges with Burma and Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan often arming them with weapons to keep India in a hostile environment and check its influence. The port of Gwadar built in Pakistan by Chinese expertise is a strategic move aimed at transporting oil from the Persian gulf to Mainland China via Gwadar and on to POK and then to Xinjiang/Tibet where it has built a world class railway system.

So to counter China, India must find its Achilles heel and what are its weak points and the soft underbelly. For this India need not look very far. India has provided safe haven to Tibetan dissidents and by any estimate about 2-4 million Tibetans are stationed in India. Tibet could easily be one fourth the size of India as it extends from J&K to Arunachal Pradesh in the East and then deep into Chinese territory. The other weak underbelly of China is Xinjiang Uighyr Autonomous Region or more commonly referred to as Xinjiang where China has relocated about 8 million Han Chinese who are at daggers drawn with the local Muslim Uighyrs.

India should have a proactive policy of promoting democracy in both Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uighyr Autonomous Regions and should encourage democratic movements in these two regions. In India the BJP in consultation with The main Opposition, the Congress, should develop a proactive and aggressive China policy which would put the psychological pressure back on the Chinese and this policy should be consistently followed for at least 20-30 years till the time India develops economic or military parity with China. This would mean encouraging the democratic movements and independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang both strategically, culturally and militarily.

China has bullied India on several occasions and the only way to deal with a bully is to stand up to it solidly and boldly. The US has many times expressed interest to India in asking it to be a part of the concentric triangle strategy to contain China whereby India, Japan and Australia along with Philippines and Taiwan could have closer strategic collaboration with each other. India should jump at this offer and should make it amply clear that India aligns with US/Israel and western democracies. This and this alone will safeguard Indian interests and this alone will make the Chinese behave themselves and keep India in a strong bargaining position.

If India doesn’t do this, China will continue to arm twist and brow beat india annexing many more parts of it and keep it occupied in the little south Asian zone by propping up belligerent and hostile neighbours. Modi has made a good start by cultivating Indian neighbours. We must go two steps ahead in cultivating countries of the central Asian republics close to Xinjiang, select countries of the gulf/middle east, south Asian countries and off course Japan and Australia. China is an unreliable country and India should not be fooled by its overtures.

In this context, the years 2018-25 are dramatic periods in Asian context. It is widely possible due to rising Islamic extremism and China adventurism with regard to Taiwan, Japan and India that this might lead to World War III or in Indian terms ‘mahapralay’. In this event about 800-900 million people will die or be maimed in a bloody nuclear, chemical and biological warfare stretching from the gulf area to Iran, India, South east Asian countries and Japans. India is well advised to speed up the raising of 3-4 additional mountain strike corps divisions along the  LAC and LOC. If China sees that India has a minimum deterrence in place it will be prevented from excessive adventurism along LAC, LOC, and the Indian ocean.