The Decade Forecast report, compiled by private-intelligence firm Stratfor, reveals the issues set to emerge across the globe within the next decade. The world is already beginning to see a decline in the nation states created by Europe across North Africa and the Middle East with the US unable to solve the endless internal fighting taking place. Turkey, whose southern border is close to the troubles, will be slowly drawn into the fighting, Stratfor predict, emerging as both a major regional power and an increasing competitor with Iran.
According to Stratfor, China is at the end of its high-growth/low wage cycle and has entered a new stage known as “the new normal” which will in turn be followed by a period of much slower growth. “China will continue to be a major economic force but will not be the dynamic engine of global growth it once was,” the report reads. Instead a new group of 16 nations which includes most of South-East Asia, East Africa and part of Latin America will emerge in China’s place as an economic powerhouse.
According to the report, China will also lose some of its military might as Japan becomes more dominant in the region. While it remains a major economic, political and military power, the United States will “be less engaged than the past”, with the powerhouse learning some vital lessons from history. This in turn will lead it to be more cautious in matters concerning economic and military matters, having “learned the limits of power in trying to pacify hostile countries”. Instead the US will be more selective with what issues it becomes involved with.
This Is How World War III Would Begin (As in a U.S.-China War)
Fifteen years ago, the only answers to “How would a war between the People’s Republic of China and the United States start?” involved disputes over Taiwan or North Korea. A Taiwanese declaration of independence, a North Korean attack on South Korea, or some similar triggering event would force the PRC and the US reluctantly into war. This has changed. The expansion of Chinese interests and capabilities means that we can envision several different scenarios in which direct military conflict between China and the United States might begin. These still include a Taiwan scenario and North Korea scenario, but now also involve disputes in the East and South China Seas, as well as potential conflict with India along the Tibetan border. The main hotspots are US-Iran, Iran-Israel, US-Turkey, Kashmir, US-North Korea and off course US-China.
WELCOME THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER
A US Intel report last Tuesday said that border skirmishes between India and Pakistan, India and China are only going to escalate in the months to come citing reasons such as undemarcated borders with China and the Kashmir crisis. Pakistan's growing internal crisis are also to be worried about and the Pak army may intensify action across the LoC or indulge in Pulwama-type terrorist activities. The US is a pro in intelligence gathering and this report should not be taken lightly.
At this moment, India will be most vulnerable. Therefore, 1 lakh military troops must be put on high alert on the China border with back up of heavy artillery, heavy machine guns, tanks and other weapons. Another 50,000 troops must be put on alert on the Pakistan border. The navy must vigorously navigate and keep an eagle’s eye on the Indo-Pacific region. The coast guard must be put on high alert too. The police and paramilitary forces must be put on alert too.
Why is India repeatedly dithering and hesitating to put its weight behind the US and the Western world? India has the largest diaspora in these countries and we share the same democratic ideals. In the 17th century, the US was a colony of the British, the French, the Dutch and the Germans. Yet they are close friends now. India should not hang on to its past and have colonial misgivings. On the one side are the democratic nations, on the other hand are communist countries and rogue nations.
Like it or not, accept it or not, the coronavirus was leaked from the Chinese military virology laboratories in Wuhan. This is biological warfare unleashed by China on the world in a veiled way. India, along with democratic nations should hold China accountable for this and China must pay for this. There are reports that Russia too is working on a virus which it will 'accidentally' leak. India should simply shrug off Russia's increasingly close proximity with Pakistan. Welcome, the new global order.
BJP/NDA STILL THE BEST CHOICE TO STEER INDIA AHEAD
Politics is dynamic and in a constant state of flux. What leaders say and do with each passing day or week determines their suitability to lead the country. The assembly results of the 5 states/UTs and the BJP accepting the people's verdict in totality reflects the mature way of the BJP leadership and its total commitment to a transparent democratic process and protecting institutional autonomy. Contrast this with the mindless, vindictive and hateful violence unleashed by the winning party in W Bengal and you will get an idea of the governance style if the UPA comes to power in the Centre.
Unprecedented times call for unprecedented measures. With Covid-19 cases reaching over 2.7 lakh and above for 6 days in a row, it is time for the government to take some hard decisions to break the Covid chain. Life is important, and so is livelihood. The state governments and the Centre will have to do a very tightrope walk and prove they are skilled acrobats in it. On the one hand is saving the lives of crores of people, on the other hand is GDP! What should you choose? Life off course.
For those who criticise the Modi government and the Centre, they must ask themselves first--are they unknowingly becoming part of the problem rather than part of the solution. What are the alternatives that they can suggest? Every leader has a style of functioning, and knowing Modiji's style is important. State governments would be well advised to tread the path of cooperation rather than confrontation, if they want to extract the maximum help from the Centre.
No one likes criticism. This applies to the previous central governments and it applies to the current Central government too. During this crisis times, if states want to get the maximum help from the Centre, they must praise and compliment the good work done by Modiji and the Centre in various fronts. This is not sychophancy, but it is being pragmatic and practical. If states act like the Big Father, they will have to give, but if you want help, you will have to act like a younger brother or a son.
The Centre and the state governments should first go in for massive tracing, testing and vaccination and prepare the public for a total 3-month lockdown in phases with focus on the micro-containment zones. First, the Centre should announce that it is giving 15 days grace period for migrants and other people to shift to their home towns. Special measures must be taken for this like: special trains with medical facilities, special bus services, special flights and the movement of migrants should be monitored closely.
STRENGTHEN FEDERAL STRUCTURE OF INDIA
Following this a total lockdown should be announced for one month extendable for two months, one month at a time. The government should identify 15-20 sectors which are essential for running the economy at a minimum. These should be kept open with passes given to workers. During this 15-day grace period, supply chains/logistics for essential goods and services should be put in place, storage of essentials in godowns and warehouses at nodal points in all districts should be ramped up.
In addition to qualified doctors, all MBBS/BAMS/Naturopathy/ students in the 3rd year and above must be put on duty. This will take care of the shortfall in medical manpower. The government should identify public and private spaces to be converted as Covid shelters. Most important, patients must be regularly briefed through private and public radio and TV channels that what are the symptoms in phases, where hospitalisation is required and where home quarantine will suffice.
Further, there is no need for having Class 12th board exams this year. The government should mandate that students will be promoted and given marks on the basis of their internal test scores and pre board exams, after due consultation. Admissions to colleges and universities and professional courses can be put off for 4-5 months till the situation eases. One or two years of loss is nothing in a lifespan of 70-80 years. If students survive this pandemic, they will have enough time to make up for the loss.
Here it is important to point out that the Centre must come down heavily on those sabotaging supply chains of essential medical commodities like oxygen, hoarding essential drugs and black marketing of much needed medical and daily needs' supplies. Subterfuge, sabotage is not only bad politics, it is criminal negligence which must be dealt with the most severest punishments. By removing many of these hurdles, the Centre can promote harmonious Centre-State relations and strengthen the Federal structure of our country.
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