Why The 2024 General Elections Could Still be A Close Finish Between the BJP/NDA and Congress/UPA

READ THE LATEST AND UPDATED VERSION OF THIS POST AS ON 26-12-2020

You can’t make a lion out of a lamb, nor can you make a lamb out of a lion. Changing attitudes and behaviour is one of the most challenging tasks in human history. What is ingrained deep in the mind, right up to the genes, is difficult to alter. Gene slicing and editing, in scientific terms, is still in its early stages. For nearly eight years in my writings in this blog, I have been a proponent of Hindu awakening, consolidation and renaissance (and still am) but at the same time keeping the secular fabric and the pluralistic nature of the country intact. But no matter how much I nudge the party to move slightly left towards the center and have an overall centrist approach and not be an ultra right outfit, after a few public posturing, the party reverts back to its original stance and old ways. The status quo, it looks, is difficult to change.

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HOW TO GOVERN A COMPLEX COUNTRY LIKE INDIA

India is a complex country made up of some 28 states and 8 union territories. There are 22 major languages in India, written in 13 different scripts, with over 720 dialects. India is home to at least nine recognized religions: Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Buddhism, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Judaism and the Baha'i faith. Different regions have their own distinct cultures: language, religion, food and the arts. India has almost every kind of geography and topography: snow-capped mountains, plains, deserts, plateaus, wetlands, coastlines, hills, etc. The climate ranges from sub-zero tundra in some areas, to the fierce heat in the deserts, humidity, from medium to severe rainfalls and severe summers. It is more appropriate to compare India to a unified European Union in terms of geography which has 28 countries and is slightly larger than India in size.

So, how does one effectively govern a diverse behemoth like India? By benevolent compassion, tolerance, devolution of powers to the states under the overall watch and guidance of the Centre, liberty/duty with responsibility free from fear, forgiveness and by policies that unite the nation rather than dividing it. By doing so, one will certainly not alienate the masses and erode the core popular support base. One should take responsibility for one's speech, behaviour and actions. Passing the buck to the other side doesn't  work. People are smart enough to see through this. As the old saying goes: what one is from the inside will reflect on the outside. Your speech, behaviour and actions are a direct result of the state of your inner mind: the control over your senses---your thoughts, emotions, imagination, attitude, and perspective. Not only one has to be forthright in public speeches, but also carry it through in actions and policies. When this is done so, people will appreciate and applaud you.  

DISPENSATION HAS DONE GOOD WORK, BUT IS FAR REMOVED FROM PUBLIC SENTIMENT

While the current dispensation has done a lot of good work for the welfare of the country and the people and to protect and rejuvenate India's ancient cultural heritage, it appears to a section of the population that the economic model encourages concentration of wealth in a small minority and could be inadvertently be promoting crony capitalism. It appears in 2-3 instances, that the dispensation has taken arbitrary and impulsive decisions affecting the lives of a billion people, but I am sure they must have had their own rationale, compulsions and constraints to do so. Transparency, participatory politics and consensus building is particularly important in a diverse country like India. Also, if people have contributed to your upward journey, what is the harm in acknowledging it and being grateful for it? By doing so, It would only show one in a good light. Also remember, loyalty is a two-way street and one cannot expect unflinching and unconditional loyalty from only one side. If one can assure protection of life and livelihood to the public, the public too will reciprocate in kind. One cannot dismiss with disdain the contributions made by the other party since independence. One should not instill so much fear in people that they will regret having elected you in the first place and will ultimately be averse to reelecting you and finally, one cannot snatch/deprive people of their work and livelihood. As many erstwhile governments with heavyweight leaders in the past have realised to their chagrin, heavy-handedness and strong-arm tactics don't work with the Indian people. These are the reasons there are strong rumblings of discontent on the ground which may turn out to be a mass movement against the dispensation. So handle gently with care.

If the players in the current dispensation have tuned their ears to the ground, they will realise that a section of the general population is not comfortable with the style, tone and manner of functioning/governing of its current leadership and also that there is deep resentment, unacceptability and displeasure for them within a sizeable section of the population. I have studied and read both sides of the story regarding the current burning issue, that if not handled properly, could easily take a wider ramification and spin out of control. People are talking by hundreds that the leadership should pack their bags and leave or else they will root out the dispensation. So what does the ruling party and its parent organisation do in these trying times and ensure continuity of the government? In view of the popular sentiment in a section of the population, the parent organisation and the ruling party could as a last option consider a change in leadership and consider repealing/withdrawing the three contentious bills. The bills must be discussed and debated again in a special session of the parliament taking the views of all the stakeholders and special interest groups and must be passed with consensus. The ruling party has no dearth of leaders. There are at least three to four tall leaders in its fold and one or two of them can be selected and elevated to lead/take over the government's affairs as a last resort case. 

CONGRESS/OPPOSITION SHOULD SHOW STATESMANSHIP IN TROUBLED TIMES

It is but obvious that the INC/Opposition will seize this opportunity. How they do it will determine their fortunes. The INC—the principal opposition party--appears to be in disarray, but this is not actually so. Though its leaders are giving press briefings from the confines of their chambers, they have their pulse on the country. Although the party’s organisational structure appears to be reduced to shambles, don't forget the party has a long history of putting itself back in shape if the nation faces a crisis. It appears Hon’ble Shri Rahul Gandhi is one of the few leaders who is out on the field and listening/talking to the people. Other prominent UPA leaders must also follow suit. While it is good to use the social media, there is nothing like a good face-to-face public rally or one-to-one interactions. The INC is not highlighting the good work it is doing in the states it is in power. The INC has failed to counter the opposite camp's charges of having done nothing for the past 70 years when in fact it laid the foundations for the country's democracy by setting up innumerable institutions and by setting up the infrastructure for modern India, it is not highlighting the failures of the dispensation to the public nor is it giving constructive criticism, and most importantly, it has not highlighted the secular fabric and the pluralistic nature of the Indian society that it has woven with dexterity and care for the unity of India. The INC, it appears, has just given up. So, here is my dose of adrenalin for them.

The INC/Opposition must start preparing for the 2024 general elections in right earnest. For this, it must prepare a manifesto with a strong vision and do untiring effort for the next 3-4 years for it to bear fruit. It must rejig and appoint efficient state party chiefs at the earliest. It must hold a general public rally in one after another district of India every week with untiring effort covering all the districts in India till the general elections of 2024.  At this crucial moment, dissidents and loyalists in the INC must quickly close ranks and work in tandem with a strong purpose. Its focus must be on building a better India for tomorrow and should not waste its time in bitter inflicted wounds of the past. Its spokespersons and leaders must not say or do anything which shows it in a negative light. It must energise the masses with the speeches of various leaders. This must be done peacefully and without breaking the law or harbouring/encouraging violence of any form.

The INC must elect/select such leaders to prominent positions in the national and state units who are educated and qualified, have been in public service for at least 5-10 years, who enjoy the trust and support of its leaders and the masses, who have a largely clean record, and who can think at the state, national and global level. It must revitalise its state and district level units and make the members active participants in the current public discourse and agenda. It must periodically reach out to important stakeholders: the regional, national and international press and the public opinion makers both in India and abroad. It must be seen as a party that is straightforward, honest and forthright in its speech, behaviour and actions and one that works for the public/national interest. INC spokespersons in the district, state and national levels must be fully abreast with the burning issues of the time. They must research and articulate a position that is positive and wins the hearts and minds of the people.    

SHRI RAHUL GANDHI COULD BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER

Shri Rahul Gandhi is a smart, educated and well-informed gentleman. I have heard 6-7 interviews of him on YouTube to the press and he speaks a language of compassion, unity and has a progressive vision for the country. He has the basic political qualification to be the next PM---three to four terms as a Lok Sabha member. The BJP is fast losing its core supporter base. It has to blame itself and cannot blame the opposition for this. At this rate, it is difficult for the BJP to win the 2024 general elections and the INC/Opposition could easily fill the void. A sizeable number of people on the streets are saying they would like to see Rahul Gandhi as the next PM. He is non-threatening by nature, he is amiable and compassionate. In fact, he would make one of the best PMs the country has had.

DYNASTIC POLITICS HAS ITS UPSIDE TOO

Although a large section of the Indian population and the Opposition have severe objections to dynastic politics, but look at it another way. Suppose there are three to four generations of craftsmen or professionals, then not only each successive generation would get the desired education, training and apprenticeship and knowing the nuances of the trade from the previous generation but they would also get the experience, secrets, intellectual and spiritual inheritance. In a family, this takes decades and even two to three generations. On the other hand, if one were to enter politics on his own, let alone thrive he may not even survive the trials and tribulations of politics if he/she has not been rigorously coached or mentored by a skilled and experienced guru. Even if he has been mentored by a skilled and experienced guru, it can still take two to three decades for the pupil to learn about the intricacies of politics. That's the reason I have no strong objections to dynastic politics. 

NEHRU-GANDHI FAMILY MUST CLEAR DOUBTS UPFRONT TO GAIN PUBLIC CONFIDENCE

But the Nehru-Gandhi family must first clear many misgivings and misinformation about itself and the Congress party which are on the minds of the public. First of all, there are many videos and reports on the internet which raise questions on the authentic lineage about the family and their assets giving the impression to the gullible public that the claims made by the party are not forthright. Second, it must ensure the Congress is not seen as an anti-Hindu party. In the secular scheme of things, all religions must be treated as equal and so must Hinduism without in any way appeasing to the principal minorities. Third, Shri Rahul Gandhi should have a monthly meeting with all UPA constituents by video conferencing, take stock of the issues facing the country, articulate a collective positive stand and chalk out the way forward. The UPA's messaging in public and media should be synchronised across all parties and media and they should always keep it positive and hope-filled for the country. Fourth, and most important, the party should move slightly right towards the center and work with the same zeal and fervour as it did during the freedom movement and should accept the RSS/BJP as an alternate discourse. This is Rahul Gandhi's/UPA's and the Opposition's defining moment! If they can handle the discontent in a mature and sensible way keeping the interest of the country foremost in their minds, they can lay the foundation firmly for the return of the UPA.