Donald Trump, the astute American real estate billionaire,
has now muzzled his way to the White House as US-President elect. Trump is a
man who has used the gift of the gab to his fullest advantage. He knows the
public is swayed by well-timed words, and he chose his words to the hilt in the
primaries.
Trump enjoys a phenomenal public persona and he has literally danced
his way to the White House. That’s where the stark and solid comparisons with
Narendra Modi come in. He has used Modi quotes “
Abki baar Trump Sarkar” and has
also said in his election speeches that when elected “
He would like to work
like Modi”. Modi too knows how to choose his words, he has a pulse on the
people, he is a great orator, he engages the public with innovative public
schemes. So will the US and India under Trump and Modi gyrate to a cozy dance?
My reading is that the bonhomie may be optimistically cautious rather than a
roller coaster ride, Here’s why.
Trump has long been a votary of giving Americans more share
of jobs. He wants to send back only illegal immigrants mainly from Mexico,
Phillippines and Middle East countries. His argument is that illegal immigrants
undercut the pay structure in the US, they promote crime, they ask for subsidies
and live off the hard-working American’s earnings and are deliberately changing
the demographic structure of the US. Trump believes these are serious issues
which could have great ramifications for the US. Trump also wants to bring back
jobs to America. He wants to abolish the H1B visa and if he implements this it
could severely affect outsourcing to India and migration of Indians to US. But at
the same time Trump favours Indians because they are educated, skilled and hard
working and contribute a great deal to the American economy. Trump also wants
that Indians who come to US for higher education be allowed to stay and take
up jobs in the US.
Trump’s foreign policy is likely to favour India. He wants
to usurp all trade treaties with countries which are milking the US. This means
China will be greatly hit. Trump wants to build closer ties with India to
counter China strategically. India should go for it. But at the same time Trump
is not going to leave the Pajkistan handle because he needs it to supply troops
to Afghanistan to check the Taliban and Al-qaeda. On the whole, Trump sees
India as a more stabilising factor than China or Pakistan and in all likelihood
is going to have a pro-India stance. At a convention during the elections,
Trump proudly threw his weight behind India and Indians and praised the Hindu
community for their united stand against terrorism. He wants to withdraw US
troops from allies in east Asia or at least ask them to pay for this. With
Russia, he wants to build bridges and does not see it as a foe. All good signs
that Trump’s foreign policy is not going to adversely affect India.
Two persons of Indian origin are in the race to be included in Trump’s cabinet. Nikki Hailey, South Carolina Governor and daughter of Sikh immigrants from Amritsar will be the US ambassador to the United Nations. She is also likely to become later the US Secretary of State and then she could play a major role in world politics. The second is Bobby Jindal, Louisiana Governor who is in the race to be the US health secretary. Being a businessman, Trump is likely to show a great deal of pragmatism in his policies and is likely to cast his ball astutely. Trump Towers are also likely to come up in Pune, Gurgaon and Mumbai. But will the businessman in him outshine the public servant streak? Not likely. India should research Trump, his businesses, his cabinet and his policies carefully. India should articulate a strategy that benefits both India and US and India should work with the US more as a partner and ally while at the same time understanding the American point of view.
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