Romney's Win Could Spark Another Round of Cold War

Undoubtedly, the highlight of the fortnight is the American Presidential elections. What does it mean for India and the world? While both Obama and Romney are affable and good gentlemen, there is a not so subtle difference in their policies and stances. Let's look at defense. Obama wants a cut in defense spending called sequestration to the tune of $1 trillion in the next 10 years. This will affect the small players in the US defence industry. Obama also wants friendly allies to up their defense spending so that the US can divert and channelize the money saved in propping up its domestic economy. Lets look at Mitt Romney. Romney still sees Russia as the No. 1 challenger if not the No. 1 enemy. He has promised that American defense spending will be accelerated to the tune of 4 per cent of the GDP. This means an increase of over $2 trillion in the next 4 years. Romney also says that on being elected, he will declare China as the biggest currency manipulator.

Romney wants a powerful America which plays a major role in maintaining security in the world. He wants to build new frigates, new bombers and aircraft carriers. Meanwhile, Russia has said that it does not accept US domination of world affairs and is against its encroachment in Eastern Europe. Russia plans to increase its defense spending by 50 per cent by 2015. What is the prognosis if Romney wins? One, that US and Russia will be again at loggerheads if Romney wins and this could lead to the start of Cold War II. Second, what does it mean for India if Romney wins? India will be placed in a highly awkward position. While Romney’s win will be good for the US and he might just well help America regain its lost glory making it more assertive on the world stage, an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between Russia and the US could start another arms race between the two superpowers. If Romney wins, the best thing India could do is to remain neutral, however, favoring the US since it shares democratic and liberal values and a free market economy but not altogether ignoring Russia, since Russia has helped India to a great extent in the 70s and 80s. But if Russia builds a nexus with China, then we should go all out in support of and back the US, EU, Japan and Australia.