Global Economic Outlook Bleak, War Looms Over Asia

As governments around the world do little to match policy with action, the global economy could slow further in 2013, the IMF has said. The US Presidential elections in November this year could determine the future course of US fiscal policy and hence, the world economy. A military option being considered for Syria/Iran problems could spark another round of hike in petrol prices. Military conflict looms over tensions between China/Japan over Senkaku/Daioyu islands. Climate change has cost the world $1.3 trillion, 1.6 per cent fall in annual GDP and  400,000 deaths, the DARA group reported. Data from around the world show that the US/EU may be entering another round of recession putting pressure on growth rates of BRICS/emerging markets. Among emerging markets, CIVETS, MIST, SLIMA could be the drivers of growth, says Marc Mobius.  

As China rearranges its economy from export-led to domestic consumption-led, new economy Chinese stocks look attractive compared to old economy stocks. While emerging market currencies strengthened a while mid last week, the actions of Central banks in the developed economies might weaken currencies in the emerging markets as they may be devalued. India’s regionalism and politics of appeasement should not in any way weaken a strong Centre. The government should be seen as decisive and purposeful. Oil/gas sourcing should be diversified and alternative fuel/energy sources should be found.  Reforms should be carried out in steady steps keeping the Indian conditions in mind.

Do what is right: Are the national parties in India losing their sheen? Looks like. This is pertinent because they seem to be obsessed with gaining/controlling/retaining power and all their actions are determined by that. But you don't get the prize by doing what others expect you to do, you don't get the applause by playing to the gallery, you don't win the game by how the spectators want you to play. Parties must determine their policies/actions based on what is good and right for the country and the people. The character of a nation develops when it does the right thing under tough and difficult times. That’s the yardstick. The right actions or policies can vary from time to time. What is relevant today may not be relevant tomorrow. So how do you determine what is right? That can be based on how one wants to see the present. 

Contextual intelligence and situational awareness is very important in this case. Let’s see what are the 5 most important issues plaguing India right now. These are: education, employment, territorial integrity, economic growth and good governance. Address these issues first. Actions must be made on boosting the growth indices in these areas. History will not judge you by how long you ruled, but how well you ruled and what you delivered. History will judge you by how you made things happen and how you changed the course of action. Remember, you don't win the game just because you want to win it, but because you have mastered the game, its rules and because you know how to play it well. The good player will always win, whereas the one who does not win is invariably because he does not know how to play well.

Prove your credentials: There is a lot of talk in the Indian media about the rise of regional chieftains/satraps in Indian politics. Who are the chief players in this arena? They are: Narendra Modi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Biju Patnaik, etc. In one way this is a good thing that the country is having good managers in the state. It's good for the state and their people. No doubt, this will help the overall development of India. But their also have been talks by the media of some of them aspiring for the prime minister’s position. I think these allegations are false because none of them have openly, consciously said that they aspire to be prime ministers. Let’s face it: at any given point of time there are at least half a dozen people in India who could be potential prime ministers. 

But at any given time there can be only one prime minister. Regional chieftains can certainly become prime ministers if they demonstrate a legacy of good governance, able administration and statesman-like approach. Picking on petty issues only makes one look like a petty player, not a national player. This national outlook, if they aspire for the prime ministership, should be reflected in their talk, behaviour and actions. This will be reflected in what their world view and what their national view is. I don't think India will ever fall short of prime ministerial candidates. Surely a billion Indians can put a half dozen people for this position.