India's Response Should be Calibrated After Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif Extends Olive Branch

  

Pakistan’s 23^rd Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is also the brother of the former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif, in an interview to a UAE news channel has called on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss issues of peace and development for the two countries subject to resolving the Kashmir issue and the treatment of Muslims in India.

According to Sehbaz Sharif, Pakistan has learnt its lessons from the past three wars with India, and in his view, there is no point in spending scarce resources on bombs and tanks when they should be channelised towards health, education, and generating employment. Pakistan’s 23^rd PM has a valid point, but can Pakistan be depended upon to keep its word, especially, when the history of the two countries in the last 75 years proves otherwise? India can definitely have talks with its juvenile neighbour, but what is the guaranty that future Pakistani premiers would toe Shehbaz Sharif’s line of thought? Can Pakistan’s leadership be trusted? Data and facts prove otherwise!

Ceasefire violations by Pakistan along the international border (IB) and the line of control (LoC) has seen a systematic increase since the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government of India entered into the agreement in November, 2003. India shares a 3,323-km border with Pakistan, of which 221 km of the IB and 740 km of the LoC fall in Jammu and Kashmir. There were 5,100 instances of ceasefire violation by Pakistan along the LoC in 2020 in Jammu and Kashmir, the highest in nearly 18 years, that claimed 36 lives and left more than 130 people injured. There were 3,289 ceasefire violations by the Pakistan army along the Indo-Pak border in 2019, after the Indian government abrogated Article 370 that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the erstwhile state into union territories. In 2018, Jammu and Kashmir had recorded 2,936 instances of ceasefire violations by Pakistan with an average of eight cases daily, in which 61 people were killed and over 250 injured.

Before the ceasefire agreement, as many as 8,376 incidents of shelling and firing by Pakistani troops were reported in 2002. For three years - 2004, 2005 and 2006 - there was not a single such violation on the border. However, there had been a gradual increase in ceasefire violations by Pakistan since 2009. in 2015, 405 cases of ceasefire violations were reported while 583 such instances were recorded in 2014. The corresponding figures for 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 were 347, 114, 62, 44, and 28. There were 77 violations in 2008, 21 in 2007 and three in 2006, according to official data. To protect border residents in the wake of increasing ceasefire violations in Jammu and Kashmir, the central government sanctioned Rs 415 crore for constructing over 14,400 underground bunkers along the LoC and the IB. As many as 7,777 bunkers have been constructed under the programme in Rajouri, Poonch, Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts.

Pakistan-backed terrorist activities on Indian soil have also shown no signs of abatement. See table below which represent the official government of India figures.

Pakistan-backed Terrorist incidents in India
Year	Number of incidents	Deaths	Injuries
2018	748	350	540
2017	1000	470	702
2016	1025	467	788
2015	884	387	649
2014	860	490	776
2013	694	467	771
2012	611	264	651
2011	645	499	730
2010	663	812	660
2009	672	774	854
2008	534	824	1,759
2007	149	626	1,187
2006	167	722	2,138
2005	146	466	1,216
2004	108	334	949
2003	196	472	1,183
2002	184	599	1,186
2001	234	660	1,144
2000	180	671	761
1999	112	469	591

 

Hindus residing in Pakistan have been facing adversities and severe institutionalized discrimination. Hindus in the country are targeted with hatred, forceful conversion, kidnappings, rapes, and even death. Many of the Hindus living in the Sindh province of Pakistan are among the poorest sections of Pakistani society. They face human rights violations in cases regarding land grabbing, abduction, and conversion. They have fewer employment opportunities and many still live as bonded laborers under Muslim landlords. Hindus also suffer routine exploitation which they dare not report to the police. Pakistan’s courts have continuously failed to provide justice for Hindus in Pakistan. A 2019 field investigation report by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has reaffirmed an unpleasant reality that is already known for far too long—minorities in Pakistan live under constant fear of persecution as their perpetrators enjoy court sanctions, support from the influential and affluent section of the society and patronage from political leaders.

Even if after peace talks, an agreement is reached between the leaders of India and Pakistan, India should be very, very careful on the following points. The current state of heightened vigil along the IB and the LoC should be continued with no question of de-escalation of troops or heavy weapons. India will have to wait and watch the developments in Pakistan and along the IB and LoC for the next 25 years before we can even think of a gradual phased de-escalation from both sides. Second, the fencing along the IB and the LoC with hi-tech sensors and the BSF patrolling should remain a permanent feature and should not ever be dismantled. What India can do is open 3-4 more corridors along the IB and the LoC for movement of people and trade. Third, tourist visas for Pakistan nationals can be increased incrementally after thorough screening and security and background checks of Pakistan nationals by the Indian embassy in Pakistan. Although there are pockets of groundswell of goodwill for India among the Pakistani general public and even though some Pakistani strategic experts and some media persons have called for peace with India, we should proceed in a calibrated way.

No helping hand to Pakistan in its moment of crisis. That should be India's policy. For close to 35 years, Pakistan has sponsored cross-border terrorism on Indian soil causing unimaginable grief and sorrow to tens of thousands of Indian families. We should never forget that.